[双语阅读]美英政府债务逼近“警戒水平”
    2010-01-18    作者:曾德金    来源:经济参考报

    GOVERNMENT DEBT SOARS

  As government debt ①soars,you have to pinch yourself to remember that only 10 years ago investors worried that western government bond markets were shrinking so fast that they might disappear. There was even talk that triple ②AAA rated corporate bonds would eventually replace Treasuries as global debt benchmarks. Indeed,in 2000 net global issuance of government debt was a mere $250bn. This year alone the UK will issue a third more than that;Eurozone governments almost six times as much. 
  It has been an open question how long this can continue before investors go on strike,rising indebtedness saps economic growth,and inflation takes off. But now,③from the ④economists who wrote the book on the impact of financial crises on public finances, comes a suggested answer-and a warning. 
  After examining the record of 44 countries for more than 200 years,Kenneth Rogoff,former International Monetary Fund chief economist,and Carmen Reinhart,a colleague,found little link between rising public debt and higher inflation in developed countries. That should ⑤soothe the inflation anxiety of some investors. They also found little relationship between debt and economic growth-so long as gross public debt stayed under 90 per cent of gross domestic product. That gets the US and the UK,with debt to GDP ratios of 84 per cent and 72 respectively,⑥off the hook for now.
  But when debt rises above that level,average growth drops by as much as 2 percentage points. Moreover,such high levels of debt were usually only reached during big wars. This debt build-up,by contrast,is in a time of relative peace.Use the latest IMF projections and Washington has only a year before it breaches the 90 per cent danger mark and needs to reholster its cheque book; London at best two.

  译文梗概

  美英政府债务逼近“警戒水平”

  随着政府债务激增,你得掐一下自己才会记起:就在10年前,投资者还担心西方政府债券市场萎缩得太快,有可能会荡然无存。美国曾考虑是否应取消30年期国债。甚至曾有传言称,AAA级公司债最终将取代美国国债成为全球债务基准。事实上,2000年全球政府债务净发行额只有2500亿美元。仅在今年,英国的发行额就将比这多出1/3;欧元区政府的发行额几乎是它的6倍。
  在投资者抵制债市、高涨的债务负担拖累经济增长及通胀走高之前,上述局面能维持多久?这个问题始终没有得到解答。不过,著书阐述金融危机对公共财政影响的经济学家,如今提出了一个暗示性的答案和一项警告。
  考查了44个国家200年间的记录后,国际货币基金组织(IMF)前首席经济学家肯尼思·罗格夫(Kenneth Rogoff)和同事卡门·莱因哈特(Carmen Reinhart)发现,在发达国家,政府债务增加与通胀上升之间几乎没有联系。一些投资者对通胀的忧虑应该会因此得到缓解。二人还发现,只要政府债务总额与国内生产总值(GDP)的比例保持在90%以下,债务与经济增长之间没有什么关系。这使美国与英国暂时脱离了险境——两国债务与GDP的比例分别为84%和72%。
  然而,当债务负担超过上述水平时,平均经济增幅就会下降最多两个百分点。此外,如此高的债务水平过去通常只出现在大战时期。相反,当前的债务增长却出现在相对和平的时期。根据IMF的最新预测,只要再过一年,华盛顿的债务比例就会突破90%的“警戒水平”,因此必须着手重整本国财政;留给伦敦的时间则最多只有两年。

  (文章来源:FT中文网)

  点评

  ①Soar,意为rise /increase swiftly or powerfully,“猛增”,与本句中的shrink形成对照,shrink意为decrease in size/scale/value,etc.“(规模或者价值等方面的)萎缩”
  ②AAA,top rating for bonds of the highest quality awarded by the main rating agencies:Standard & Poor‘s,Moody’s and Fitch IBCA.给予优质债券的最高评级。由标准普尔、穆迪和惠誉国际等主要评级机构评定。
  ③划线部分为状语前置引起的倒装结构,正常语序应该为:A suggested answer-and a warning,comes from the economists who wrote the book on the impact of financial crises on public finances.
  ④economists其后紧接一个限制性定语从句,由于先行词为人且作主语,所以引导词用who.
  ⑤soothe,意为to relieve or assuage(pain or longing),“减缓(疼痛、不安等)”,在此是减缓通胀引发的投资者的担忧。
  ⑥off the hook本意为脱离挂钩,hook在此寓意即为下一段中的danger mark,“警戒水平”。

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